SWODY1
SPC AC 271236
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST TUE DEC 27 2011
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM SE GA TO THE
TIDEWATER REGION OF VA...
...SE GA TO THE TIDEWATER REGION TODAY...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM IA TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. THE PHASING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AS AN INITIAL LOW IN KY
DEVELOPS NEWD TO WRN PA/NY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUES NEWD INTO
SRN QUEBEC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. S OF THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE EWD FROM SW GA/FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING TO OFF THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. A MODIFYING WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD
NWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE TIDEWATER REGION BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE AND EJECTING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON
THE N EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO 50-60 KT...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2.
THIS VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED
BOWING SEGMENTS AND CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTS WHERE MLCAPE
COULD REACH 500 J/KG IN A MOIST PROFILE WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THUS...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREATS BEGINNING AROUND MID-LATE MORNING
IN SE GA/SC...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
...N/CENTRAL FL TODAY...
WEAK BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO N FL ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO CENTRAL FL. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS
MARGINAL PER THE 12Z TAMPA SOUNDING...AND ONLY SHALLOW FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES N OF FL. LIKEWISE...THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WILL STAY N OF FL...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AS
THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS N/CENTRAL FL.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 12/27/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment