SWODY1
SPC AC 021246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2011
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE SSEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING AND ENEWD
EJECTION OF MIDLEVEL LOW FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY 03/12Z. IN THE LOW LEVELS...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE THE NRN EXTENSION OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN...THE SEGMENT OVER TX WILL BE MAINTAINED
AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NWD IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
WRN TX TONIGHT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
12Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE A MODIFIED
CP AIR MASS PRESENT ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
55-65F AND PW VALUES OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTURE NWWD TODAY ISENTROPICALLY
ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...CAPPING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED BY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT N OF SURFACE FRONT AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NRN
MEXICO. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/02/2011
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