SWODY2
SPC AC 020610
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NEWD FROM
NM/FAR WEST TX INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR INDUCING WEAK SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN ERODING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WEDGED ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS THEN TRACK ACROSS WRN OK BEFORE LIFTING TO NEAR MCI
BY 04/00Z. LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN
DESTABILIZING THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SRN PLAINS DESPITE A STRONG
LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 60KT. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL STRUGGLE TO YIELD 500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL
TX...AND THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONGEST ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE SEVERE PROBS BELOW
5% BUT MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND OK.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ESCARPMENT OF CNTRL TX COULD YIELD A BAND OF POST FRONTAL CONVECTION
THAT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY APPEARS INADEQUATE
TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR HAIL AOA ONE INCH.
..DARROW.. 12/02/2011
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