SWODY2
SPC AC 120542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE BASE OF BROADER SCALE TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC
COAST DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DIGS WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LEAD FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY
TO PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ NORTHERN
BAJA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...BEFORE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SHEARED AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH WARMING AND MOISTENING MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN WEAK
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ABOVE A
RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE LAYER NEAR SURFACE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO MODIFY. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF
A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...DESPITE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS WITHIN
A STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD
UPPER LOW...FROM THE LOWER DESERTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..KERR.. 12/12/2011
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