SWODY2
SPC AC 151720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST THU DEC 15 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASINGLY
COME INTO PHASE WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME
CLOSED/CUT-OFF AND ULTIMATELY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN BAJA ON
FRIDAY. BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WHAT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MEAGER TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND/OR SOUTHWEST
STATES...WITH SEVERE TSTMS OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTED IN EITHER CASE ON
FRIDAY.
...TN VALLEY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCED LIFT FOCUSED ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH WEAK ELEVATED
BUOYANCY/MARGINAL MIXED-PHASED CHARGE SEPARATION...MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS EMBEDDED WITH A BROADER CORRIDOR OF
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE ANY TSTM COVERAGE/POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW PROBABILITY /AROUND 10
PERCENT/ TSTM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
...SOUTHWEST STATES...
ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CLOSED
LOW...SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY COINCIDE WITH A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES/MARGINAL TSTM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AZ ON FRIDAY.
..GUYER.. 12/15/2011
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