SWODY2
SPC AC 121727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST MON DEC 12 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSLATE INTO THE
SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALONG AND NORTH OF A FAIRLY
STRONG JET IT APPEARS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO
SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM AZ...NEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EWD THERE WILL BE A MARKED RESPONSE IN THE LLJ ACROSS
THE PLAINS. IN TURN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
NORTH OF A RETREATING/MOISTENING WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...IT
APPEARS CAPPING WILL PREVENT SFC BASED CONVECTION FROM EVOLVING
ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
SWRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS
REASON THE SEVERE PROBS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5%.
..DARROW.. 12/12/2011
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