SWOD48
SPC AC 270930
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST TUE DEC 27 2011
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING DAY-1 FROPA OFF ATLC COAST...SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE
SUPPRESSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS BY RELATIVELY DRY AND/OR STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYERS. AIR-MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD ALLOW FAVORABLE MOISTURE
RETURN TO W GULF COAST REGION BEGINNING AROUND DAY-5/31ST-1ST...WHEN
MOST MREF MEMBERS ALONG WITH OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ECMWF/UKMET FCST
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
HAS SOME OBSERVATIONAL SUPPORT AS SPEED MAX/VORTICITY BANNER...NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY IN SRN RIM OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE
THAT IS CENTERED NE OF JAPAN...OVER SRN SEA OF OKHOTSK. THOUGH
DIFFERING ON TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
DAY-6/1ST-2ND...STG CONSENSUS FROM PROGS IS THAT MOST FAVORABLE
THETAE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL S OF STRONGEST FRONTAL LIFT AND
MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
..EDWARDS.. 12/27/2011
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