SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050555
TXZ000-OKZ000-050900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 050555Z - 050900Z
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW EXISTS OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. COINCIDING DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES BELOW FREEZING.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO
INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THIS MAY
INTENSIFY FURTHER THROUGH THE 07-10Z TIME FRAME. LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL ENHANCE LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR DENDRITIC
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR IN A CORRIDOR NEAR/WEST
THROUGH NORTH OF ABILENE...TOWARD WICHITA FALLS AND CHILDRESS.
..KERR.. 12/05/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32780218 33360107 34390009 34339893 33609821 32859899
31740066 31810217 32780218
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