MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2396

ACUS11 KWNS 271706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271705
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST TUE DEC 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN SC AND ERN NC TO SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271705Z - 271800Z

PARTS OF NERN SC AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NC INTO FAR SERN VA ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR A WW OVER ERN NC IS 50%. GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THIS REGION /50-55 KT AT 3 KFT AGL PER AREA WSR-88D
VAD/...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEWD
MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION IN NERN SC SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL/SERN
NC. MEANWHILE...A TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A
CONCERN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NRN SC
COAST...MOVES ONSHORE IN ERN NC...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

AT 1630Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER ERN SC /NRN MARLBORO COUNTY TO
CENTRAL COLLETON COUNTY/. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
APPARENT LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE ANALYSES
INDICATED SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...1/
SWRN OH/NRN KY...2/WRN NC...AND 3/ 30 MILES OFFSHORE THE NERN SC
COAST OR 40 SSE CRE. THIS LATTER LOW IS TRACKING NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE SC COAST...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK /TOWARD THE NNE/ AND
SPEED /50-55 KT/ THIS COMPACT LOW WILL LIKELY GLANCE THE SERN NC
COAST /BRUNSWICK COUNTY BY 1730Z/ AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE IN ONSLOW
AND CARTERET COUNTIES BY 18Z. THIS LOW WOULD TRACK ASHORE WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR...GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED INLAND AT LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES IN NC. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE SURFACE LOW...AND DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...
WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

..PETERS.. 12/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 33897706 33177850 33127966 33328007 34347942 35367806
36237694 36677641 36787608 36587510 35207535 34317638
33897706

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