Wednesday, January 11, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110520
SWODY1
SPC AC 110519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM MS INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS
BY 00Z WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM A TN/OH VALLEY SURFACE
LOW. MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
FORM OF MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS...PERHAPS LOWER 60S NEAR THE
COAST.

...SERN STATES...
A LINE OF HIGHLY SHEARED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN GA TO APALACHEE BAY EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SEVERE WINDS OR PERHAPS A ROGUE TORNADO EARLY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE AIR MASS FARTHER INLAND WILL BE MARGINAL...AND MAY NOT SUPPORT
MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.

A SECONDARY AREA OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE
VORT CENTER WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL BE
OVER ERN TN...NRN GA...AND INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS LATE IN THE DAY.
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING...WITH NRN
PORTIONS PERHAPS SCRAPING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH AN ISOLATED
WIND OR TORNADO THREAT.

..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 01/11/2012

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