SWODY1
SPC AC 260551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
STATES...
...GULF STATES/SERN U.S...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS NERN TX TO A POSITION OVER
NWRN MS BY 27/00Z BEFORE ABSORPTION/PHASING OCCURS WITH LONGER WAVE
TROUGH. THIS EWD PROGRESSION WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL 12HR HEIGHT
FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 90-120M ACROSS THE INTERIOR GULF STATES
ENSURING A BROAD SWATH OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. BY 12Z IT APPEARS SFC COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADVANCED TO NEAR
THE MS RIVER WHILE GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/WARMING WILL
HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR THE TN BORDER WHERE SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER TO NEAR 60F.
EARLY THIS MORNING...ONGOING FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS GRADUALLY WANED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LA/MS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCENT ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT AND
THUNDERSTORMS REINTENSIFY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID
LEVEL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITHIN POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVER SERN TX/WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS LIKELY REFLECTIVE
OF INCREASING ASCENT THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SERN LA/MS BY 18Z...WHICH
COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID SQUALL LINE
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD
EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SRN MS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SUGGEST AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70F.
ANOTHER CORRIDOR WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF MS INTO WCNTRL AL. UPDRAFTS COULD BE ENHANCED OVER THIS REGION
WHERE LAPSE RATES COULD EXCEED 7 C/KM...THOUGH MUCAPE VALUES MAY
STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 700-800 J/KG.
LATEST THINKING IS RENEWED FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER MS/SERN LA BEFORE PROPAGATING
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES AHEAD OF
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
OTHERWISE...AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ERN GA/SC DUE TO A DECAYING
SQUALL LINE.
..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 01/26/2012
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