SWODY1
SPC AC 070457
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ERN GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
IN ITS WAKE...FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS /RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS E OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY/
WHILE THE WRN TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGS S/SEWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY
SWWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT STALL ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
NRN PORTION SAGS SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
NRN GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
WHILE MID-LEVEL WARMING/HEIGHT RISES ABOVE THE 700 MB LAYER WILL
INHIBIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH TODAY...A FEW/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. REGIONAL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WHILE STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED...THEY COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED BY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S/LOW 70S AND DEW
POINTS INCREASE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F. AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASE...SBCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 500-750 J/KG. HOWEVER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK TODAY /LESS THAN 25 KT/ THEREFORE
LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION IS ANTICIPATED.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 01/07/2012
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