SWODY1
SPC AC 300459
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ERN STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD/OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IN ITS WAKE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. FARTHER W...STRENGTHENED WLY FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH/HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN SELY WINDS ACROSS SRN TX...SUPPORTING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES NRN MEXICO INTO SRN TX.
...SRN TX...
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER 00Z MONTERREY INTL AIRPORT RAOB
HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MEXICO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX. ALTHOUGH A RECENT
FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS LIMITED RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF...SELY
WINDS AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL SUPPORT A
GENERAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S BY EARLY MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
FAVORABLY TIMED FORCING FOR ASCENT DRIFTS INTO SRN TX...THOUGH WEAK
LAPSE RATES WILL BE A HINDRANCE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 01/30/2012
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