SWODY1
SPC AC 081239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2012
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW FORMING OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TODAY BEFORE DECELERATING OVER NM/WRN TX INTO
N-CNTRL MEXICO TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SERN INTO DEEP S TX WILL RETREAT NWWD
IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
ERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING FROM ERN TX
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
...CNTRL/SRN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM /EMBEDDED WITH SUBTROPICAL
AIR STREAM/ OVER ERN TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE LOW. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO CNTRL GULF STATES. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODEST WLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTANT 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
OVER TX...A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER CAP ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML
ADVECTED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO RESTRICT CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEPTH AND RESULTING LIGHTNING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. BY TONIGHT...THE CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF
SURFACE FRONT /OWING TO DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ/ WILL FOSTER
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EWD TOWARD THE
MID/UPPER COAST. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND 40-50 KT OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CAP WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED AT THE
BASE OF THE EML. THUS...DESPITE A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AND
INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY NOT INCREASE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL AFTER 09/12Z.
..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 01/08/2012
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