Tuesday, January 17, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180058
SWODY1
SPC AC 180057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST STATES...
THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS EVENING ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN A GENERAL
WEST-EAST CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL TO FL
PANHANDLE...AS A COLD FRONT OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CORRIDOR...STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS/COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION AND VERY
STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY STILL YIELD SOME
SMALL SCALE BOWS/POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN VIA
NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES/CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR A
COLD FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS/ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WANE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA. THIS WILL BE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER INFLUENCES AND A RESIDUALLY
COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OTHERWISE.

..GUYER.. 01/18/2012

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