SWODY2
SPC AC 080659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE PAC NW LATE...AND A PAIR OF TROUGHS CROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND ERN CANADA...THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE S
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS LOW -- INITIALLY PROGGED TO BE DEVELOPING OVER
NM/FAR W TX AND ADJACENT NRN MEXICO...IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITH
TIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE UPPER CYCLONE MOVES EWD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW INITIALLY INVOF
DEEP S TX IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL REGION
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUE NWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION
LATE. WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL U.S. WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...SRN AND ERN TX EWD INTO PARTS OF LA...
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NNEWD ALONG THE TX COAST TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH TIME...A NARROW ZONE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LINGER INVOF THE TX COAST...AND LATER MAY ADVECT NWD ACROSS
SRN AND WRN LA TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. THIS HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT -- GIVEN STRONG DIFFLUENCE/ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM -- TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE WILL LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL...VERY FAVORABLY
VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- FROM ESELY AT THE SURFACE TO SWLY AT
MID-LEVELS -- IS A POSITIVE FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE
EVOLUTION OF A FEW STRONGER/ROTATING STORMS. GREATEST THREAT DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS -- CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO -- WILL LIKELY
RESIDE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN OF TX.
OVERNIGHT...THREAT MAY SPREAD NWD UP THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
THE ARKLATEX...AND INTO ADJACENT SRN AND WRN LA -- IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE FORECAST NNEWD TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THREAT FOR A FEW ROTATING CELLS -- AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
ATTM...OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREATER THAN
5%. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT FORECAST ATTM.
..GOSS.. 01/08/2012
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