SWODY2
SPC AC 160604
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE PLAINS TO THE E
COAST BY 00Z AS A STRONG UPPER JET MAX DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...NOSING INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MI INTO UPSTATE NY DURING THE
DAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO MS/LA BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SWLY SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
...LA/MS/AL...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE WARM
CONVEYOR WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
AND STORMS PRIMARILY ELEVATED ABOVE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. FLOW
WILL BECOME LARGELY WLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE N. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD
FROM NRN MS INTO LA DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS
MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER E.
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG...OR PERHAPS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED AND LOWER 60S
F DEWPOINTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE 500 J/KG MUCAPE. HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE AND LONG...AND WILL FAVOR SPLITTING CELLS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. WITH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..JEWELL.. 01/16/2012
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