DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240709
SWODY2
SPC AC 240707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND INTO
LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE FAST/GENERALLY WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF
THE CONUS...THE SRN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED
BY LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS BOTH THE SWRN AND SERN STATES -- ON
EITHER SIDE OF A FAIRLY SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS LOW -- INITIALLY CENTERED INVOF W TX -- WILL REACH EAST TX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW INITIALLY PROGGED TO RESIDE INVOF S TX
SHOULD MARCH SLOWLY NNEWD ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN WITH TIME.
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY...REACHING A POSITION INVOF AR BY 26/12 AS THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN GULF.

...E TX AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST INTO LA...
SELY/SLY FEED OF LOW-LEVEL WRN GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD INTO E TX AND THE WRN GULF COAST REGION...AS THE UPPER LOW
PROGRESSES STEADILY ACROSS TX AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
NWD ACROSS ERN TX. STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL -- WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY -- SHIFTING EWD WITH
TIME. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS AR/LA TOWARD
THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS NWD ALONG WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING WARM SECTOR.

AS 40 TO 60 KT SSWLYS AT MID LEVELS SPREAD EWD ATOP THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR AND SLY/SELY FLOW THEREIN...SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE CONVECTION ON THE NRN FRINGE OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SURFACE-BASED
STORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES -- ARE EXPECTED ACROSS E TX AND INTO LA...AND THUS
INCLUSION OF SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE PROBABILITY WILL BE ADDED THIS
FORECAST. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...APPROACHING THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION LATE.

..GOSS.. 01/24/2012

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