SWODY2
SPC AC 061726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE ERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVE OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL DOWNSTREAM OF A
MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SE TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH NM AND THE SRN GREAT
BASIN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ARE EXPECTED TO DAMPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ON SATURDAY AS THEY TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE AREA OF HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
AT 12Z SATURDAY...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH KY AND AR TO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN TX.
THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SWD AND SHOULD STALL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NRN AL/MS TO THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/TSTM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
MIDLEVEL WARMING IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THIS REGION. DESPITE THIS FACTOR
TENDING TO REDUCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH...THE COMBINATION OF MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE /PW VALUES TO NEAR 1
INCH/ AND SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE AROUND 500 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LOW LEVEL WAA AND FRONTAL ASCENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION AS MIDLEVEL FORCING WILL TEND TO BE WEAK.
INITIAL STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER SRN
AR/NRN MS...BUT AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25
KT...AT BEST...MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT
OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C
PER KM/ WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
CONSENSUS OF MODELS WARRANTED SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GENERAL TSTM
AREA...WITH THE REMOVAL OF PART OF NRN AR AND THE ADDITION OF THE
REST OF LA INTO EXTREME ERN TX.
..PETERS.. 01/06/2012
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