SWODY2
SPC AC 301729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PREDOMINANTLY QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST TUESDAY
WITH SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
REGIME. THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING SRN TX WILL WEAKEN
AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH ADVANCES INTO SRN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH TRAILING PORTIONS MOVING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
...ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING IN GRADIENT ZONE BETWEEN AREA OF
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER THE GULF IS MODIFYING...AND THIS PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WILL ADVECT NEWD WITH LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS FROM ERN TX TO NEAR 50
AS FAR NORTH AS WRN KY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO SRN PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL OWING
TO MODEST LAPSE RATES. MUCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500-800 J/KG
OVER ERN TX TO BELOW 300 J/KG OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.
PRIMARY LLJ WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY OVER ERN TX. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES INDICATE A WARM/DRY LAYER NEAR 500 MB WHICH SUGGESTS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TOO WARM ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
NERN TX...ERN OK...THE LOWER MS AND WRN TN VALLEY REGIONS WITHIN
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG LLJ AND AS FORCING INCREASES ALONG COLD
FRONT AND WITH APPROACH OF THE SRN LATITUDE TROUGH. ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP NEWD AS FAR AS SRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE LIMITED
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LIGHTNING SHOULD BE MORE SPARSE.
..DIAL.. 01/30/2012
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