SWODY3
SPC AC 080828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING A BIT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THIS
PERIOD...AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY ACROSS TX
WILL MAKE FURTHER EWD PROGRESS THIS PERIOD -- THE GFS FASTER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM. BOTH MODELS ALSO DIG A TROUGH SEWD
ACROSS THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS MOVE THE WEAK LOW FROM THE ARKLATEX
REGION NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH THE GFS AGAIN
FASTER/FARTHER E WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. MEANWHILE...BOTH MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NRN
PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIGGING WRN UPPER TROUGH. MAIN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
...FAR E TX EWD TO SWRN AL/THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
ANOTHER DAY OF MEAGER WARM-SECTOR INSTABILITY IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...WITH MORE FAVORABLE GULF MOISTURE STRUGGLING TO MOVE
INLAND. SOME NWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW-LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST UP THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
SLOWLY NEWD...WHICH WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VEERING/SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ROTATION...THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS APPARENT -- THOUGH
PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW GIVEN INADEQUATE CAPE. STILL...WILL INCLUDE
5% PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST -- CENTERED ON THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AREA...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
..GOSS.. 01/08/2012
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