SWODY3
SPC AC 140725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2012
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EWD
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...AMONGST A GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE LOWER 48. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS KS AND NRN OK DURING THE DAY...IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...TRANSLATING NEWD INTO LOWER MI BY TUE
MORNING.
DURING THE DAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
STREAM NWD INTO ERN OK AND AR ...WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY.
...NERN TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS
CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z...FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. A COMBINATION OF FORCING NEAR THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL AS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG...INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
..JEWELL.. 01/14/2012
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