SWODY3
SPC AC 240824
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER E TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EVOLVING INTO A MORE "OPEN" WAVE AND TO ACCELERATE EWD...AS IT
PHASES WITH A TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM. AS THIS OPENING SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST...AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...REACHING A POSITION E OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES...
WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD INVOF LA AND VICINITY...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
SPREADING WELL N ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION. AS A NEW
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...COMBINATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTING NWD FROM
THE GULF AND SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUGGESTS THAT
EPISODES/BANDS OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
REGION OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WHILE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT/MARGINAL CAPE...THREAT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION.
..GOSS.. 01/24/2012
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