SWOD48
SPC AC 040951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST WED JAN 04 2012
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET SUGGEST THAT AMPLIFIED/SPLIT UPPER FLOW WITH A
TENDENCY FOR LONGWAVE TROUGHING /ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES/
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FL
VICINITY ON DAY 4/SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEST STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY CONSIDERABLY INCREASES
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING A SECONDARY /AND
PERHAPS STRONGER -- ESPECIALLY AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF/ SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING TSTM THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK /INTO DAYS 7-8/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCLEAR.
GIVEN LIMITED OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AND APPRECIABLE LONGER TERM
UNCERTAINTY...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE
CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 01/04/2012
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