SWOD48
SPC AC 290956
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CNTRL STATES ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 4. THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGE QUICKLY WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF MOVING
THE SYSTEM EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
WAVE AND IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS. AT THIS POINT...PREFER THE ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES THE STORMS EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON THURSDAY/DAY 5.
AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN
STATES ON FRIDAY/DAY 6. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN
THE ERN GULF COAST STATES TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO AND THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL NOT INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
THREAT AREA IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 01/29/2012
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