Wednesday, January 25, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0065

ACUS11 KWNS 250534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250534
TXZ000-250630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY...S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...

VALID 250534Z - 250630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 13 CONTINUES.

PRIMARILY A SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING
LINEAR MCS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY W OF WW 13 OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS S-CNTRL TX NEAR
LRD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND WOULD POSE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
HAIL/TORNADO RISK.

WELL-ADVERTISED LINEAR MCS INVOF EDWARDS/KINNEY COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND E/NEWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY
WITHIN A ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
CENTERED OVER FAR W TX. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THIS
CLUSTER HAS REMAINED LARGELY POST-FRONTAL THUS FAR...PRIMARILY
POSING A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. AS ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE BROADER WARM
SECTOR...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT APPEARS PROBABLE...YIELDING A MIX OF ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING FARTHER SE TOWARDS
LRD...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARING TO BE UNDERWAY.
GIVEN A MUCH BROADER WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG WITH STRONG SLYS AOA 30
KT ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THIS SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30040044 30320025 30889925 31039840 30879710 30569673
30289667 29929646 29339663 28239720 27999753 27719823
27629847 27629901 27669934 27829968 28380039 29120073
30040044

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