Wednesday, January 25, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0072

ACUS11 KWNS 260224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260223
MSZ000-LAZ000-260400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 16...

VALID 260223Z - 260400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 16 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 16 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. WHILE A SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE /WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/ CONTINUES
TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AT MID-EVENING.
FARTHER NORTHEAST...THE INTEGRITY OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS WANED
ACROSS NORTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL MS AS OUTFLOW HAS SURGED
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THIS OUTFLOW MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT VIA THE ADJACENT WARM SECTOR. THAT SAID...A
SLIGHTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...TRENDS OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER
IR SATELLITE...AND A TENDENCY FOR SLIGHTLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
IMPLY A MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALBEIT ON A MORE ISOLATED BASIS...THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
QLCS-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. WHILE LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSIONS
/UP TO 1-2 HR/ MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR WW 16...AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH IS NOT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER.. 01/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 28509294 29579239 30939189 31229099 32168998 32288942
29189038 28509294

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