SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270734
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-270900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WV...FAR WRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270734Z - 270900Z
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS WITH
EWD-PROPAGATING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSING CNTRL WV/FAR
SWRN VA. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NEWD EXTENT GIVEN
PERSISTENT COLD DOME ACROSS THE ERN WV/MD PANHANDLES. THE
PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 09Z IS 20 PERCENT.
AS OF 0725Z...HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDED FROM
HARRISON COUNTY WV INTO SMYTH COUNTY VA...SHALLOW IN VERTICAL EXTENT
WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING PRODUCTION PER NLDN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE.
MODIFIED RUC/ARW-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 100-200 J/KG SBCAPE
MAY BE PRESENT WITH A LACK OF A SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH 1 KM AGL SWLYS AROUND 60 KT AS THE LINE PASSED THE
RX VWP...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS /REF 55 KT AT
KBKW AT 0719Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WV INTO FAR WRN VA.
HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NERN EXTENT AS THE
LINE ENCOUNTERS A STRONG SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME /TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/ THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE ERN WV/MD
PANHANDLES.
..GRAMS.. 01/27/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 37788096 38618056 39318038 39578036 39778014 39797974
39597956 39287951 39007927 38657900 37627939 36998001
37098087 37338119 37788096
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment