SWODY1
SPC AC 030548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK SOUTHWARD
THRU MUCH OF CNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MORE PROMINENT BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...WITH AN
UPPER HIGH CENTER NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TO
ITS SOUTH...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND
ELONGATE ALONG AN EAST-WEST AXIS...AS AN EMBEDDED CYCLONE LIFTS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE... WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. SURFACE
RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO LOSE INFLUENCE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER COLD SURFACE RIDGE NOSES
SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. BUT A
CORRIDOR OF MODEST RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY...MOSTLY DUE TO THE CURRENT AND FORECAST WEAKNESS OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE
TO A SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE PRESENT AND
ANTICIPATED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VIGOROUS ONGOING STORMS
FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE BEYOND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...AS SUPPORTING
FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK
NOSING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAY REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...PARTICULARLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AN ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...OR
PERHAPS A SHARPENING DRY LINE...MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A CORRIDOR
OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INCLUDE
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...MAINLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..KERR/COHEN.. 02/03/2012
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