SWODY1
SPC AC 070540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SRN CANADA INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. A NARROW...W-E-ELONGATED SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SWD
OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS. A ZONE OF WLYS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE THE EWD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...COLD CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING FRONT. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
CNTRL/S FL AND THE FL KEYS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE FRONT OVER
THE FL PENINSULA. FARTHER WEST...WAA ATOP A MODIFYING COLD DOME WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF S TX TONIGHT. ALSO...A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE W CONUS COAST.
...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FL KEYS TODAY/THIS EVE...
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S WILL PROMOTE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AMIDST A BROAD SFC TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE DIFFUSE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE TROUGH
AND FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GREATLY LIMIT STORM STRENGTH.
...PORTIONS OF FAR S TX TONIGHT...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ELEVATION CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE AND WAA INCREASE
ATOP THE MODIFYING COLD DOME. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...AND SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...COAST OF SWRN CA TODAY/TONIGHT...
WHILE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
E-PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST...THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST. AS
SUCH...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY
LOW OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
SUCH THAT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.
..COHEN/GOSS.. 02/07/2012
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