SWODY1
SPC AC 081215
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 AM CST WED FEB 08 2012
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL
AND ERN U.S...SOUTH OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN VORTEX PATTERN
OVER CANADA. FARTHER S AND W...A RIDGE WILL BUILD NNE ACROSS THE
NWRN STATES FROM THE PACIFIC...AND CLOSED LOW NOW OFF NRN BAJA CA
WILL CONTINUE SSE PARALLEL TO THE BAJA CST. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
BAJA SYSTEM...ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PERSIST
FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO TO NRN FL.
AT LWR LVLS...DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY S
ACROSS CNTRL FL TODAY AND INTO SRN FL TNGT. THE BOUNDARY LIKELY
WILL BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THU AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE SERN STATES. DRY AND/OR STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS WITH THE
EXCEPTION SERN FL...WHERE A FEW TSTMS MAY OCCUR.
...S FL THIS AFTN...
DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER S ACROSS CNTRL FL TODAY IN
WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY'S ADVANCE SHOULD LESSEN EARLY
THU AS DEVELOPING SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE
OH VLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST.
LOW LVL MOISTURE LIKELY WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER S FL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE E CST AND OVER THE MIDDLE/UPR KEYS...WHERE WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC HEATING WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION. CONVERGENCE ALONG ASSOCIATED SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT...MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO. WEAK SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND SUSTENANCE.
...DEEP S TX...
SATELLITE...SFC DATA...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR TSTMS OVER DEEP S TX TODAY GIVEN WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WELL S AND E OF
BROWNSVILLE.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 02/08/2012
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