SWODY1
SPC AC 141224
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER CO
VALLEY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 15/12Z...IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING SSEWD THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW INTO GREAT BASIN. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FORMER WILL
HASTEN LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN NM/SERN CO INTO OK/TX
PNHDLS...AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO CNTRL
LA. A LEE TROUGH ATTENDANT TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER WRN TX TODAY BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC FRONT SHIFTING
ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT.
...OZARK PLATEAU REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
AN EML ORIGINATING OVER THE SRN PLATEAU REGION WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD WITHIN A STRENGTHENING SWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME PRECEDING THE LOWER CO VALLEY SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR ABOVE AN INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NO TSTMS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ --AUGMENTED BY THE
DYNAMIC RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH-- WILL EXPEDITE
THE NWD RETURN OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN TX INTO ERN OK. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BENEATH
THE EWD-ADVECTING EML TO YIELD MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000
J/KG IN THE 15/06-12Z TIME FRAME.
WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS WILL COUPLE WITH
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DCVA IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO
FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 15/09Z. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MODEST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
...ELSEWHERE...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WHERE
MOIST...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COINCIDES WITH STRONG DCVA
AND MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -30 C IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED IN EITHER AREA.
..MEAD/COHEN.. 02/14/2012
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