SWODY1
SPC AC 161253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT-FLOW LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED W OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY...FEATURING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PROGRESS
SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CA AND INTO NWRN MEXICO BY 17/12Z.
MEANWHILE...A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH --EMBEDDED WITHIN
CONFLUENT MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE OH VALLEY-- WILL TRANSLATE
EWD TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS LATTER SYSTEM
WILL BE ATTENDED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONCURRENTLY ADVANCE
FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE MID-
AND SERN-ATLANTIC COASTS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF GA/SC TO
OFF THE ERN NC COAST.
...NERN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS...
REMNANTS OF A LONG-LIVED MCS WHICH EVOLVED OVER SERN TX WED
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA AND NRN FL
TODAY...DRIVEN LARGELY BY UPLIFT ALONG AN ESTABLISHED COLD
POOL...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA OBSERVED BY AREA
VADS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS. GPS PW IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDING DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MCS HAS ADVANCED E OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
AIR CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND S-CNTRL/SERN
GA. AS SUCH...EXPECT REGENERATIVE/BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE FL PNHDL INTO SERN AL/SWRN GA WITH STORMS
DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA. GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED VEERING AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OFF THE NC
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA
INTERACT WITH A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY AFFECT THE OUTER
BANKS...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED BY THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN NWD/NWWD DURING THE D1 PERIOD AS THE LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELD
RESPONDS TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STALLING SURFACE FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTMS TODAY ACROSS DEEP S TX...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
WILL AID IN THE NWD/NEWD EXPANSION OF TSTMS TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF
SWRN TX...THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WHILE SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
..MEAD/COHEN.. 02/16/2012
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