SWODY1
SPC AC 101612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE DROPS SWD
INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. AS THE NRN WAVE ENTERS THE GRT LAKES REGION
LATER TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE S AND EWD FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS TO A POSITION FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BEFORE EXITING OVER THE ATLANTIC BY 11/12Z. A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE SRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA TO JUST OFFSHORE
OF SC LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
TRACK NEWD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS.
...CNTRL/ERN FL PENINSULA...
E-SELY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ERN/SRN FL PENINSULA WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /I.E. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPR 70S WILL SUPPORT WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ASCENT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL
AS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL E-SELYS
JUXTAPOSED BENEATH 40 KT OF MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW
MARGINALLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR A DAMAGING
WIND GUST OR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 02/10/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment