SWODY1
SPC AC 251604
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2012
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...FEATURING THE EWD
TRANSLATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF THE E COAST...DOWNSTREAM FROM
AN AMPLIFYING IMPULSE ADVANCING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN
PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A SUBTROPICAL-BRANCH PERTURBATION OVER S TX
WILL WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 26/12Z...EFFECTIVELY DRIVING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL POSSIBLE TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE
WA/ORE COASTS INTO ID ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK WHERE DEEP ASCENT AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION. OVER S FL...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF WARM MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL PROHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS. ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE S TX COAST AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN ADVANCE OF WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE. IN ALL CASES MENTIONED ABOVE...LIGHTNING POTENTIAL APPEARS
TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.
..MEAD.. 02/25/2012
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