SWODY1
SPC AC 171945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COAST...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO NUDGE THE SLIGHT RISK NWD ALONG
THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND ACROSS SCNTRL TX. A SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING
NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI AND A SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NEAR VICTORIA SWWD WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z.
..BROYLES.. 02/17/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012/
.. S TX...
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT/BROKEN SHOWERS ACROSS N TX ATTM DUE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN ZONE OF COUPLED UPPER
JETS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER CNTRL U.S.
POST COLD FRONTAL SURFACE-BASED STABLE AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF TX WITH COOL AND MOIST NELY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. EXCEPTION IS DEEP S TX WHERE AIRMASS RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY
AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
AHEAD OF SUBSTANTIAL UPR TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM NRN MEX. EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA
LATER TODAY AS UPR FORCING AIDS ASCENT AND INHIBITION IS LOCALLY
OVERCOME. GREATER CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
DECOUPLED AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM S TX INTO THE WRN GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO SOME ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE TONIGHT AS THE UPR
TROUGH SPREADS EAST AND DEEP LEVEL ASCENT ACTS ON INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER S TX AND ADJACENT GULF.
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