SWODY1
SPC AC 191958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A COUPLE OF CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST
CHANGE IS TO CONFINE THE 5 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY TO THE
COASTS OF NE FL...SE GA AND ERN SC WHERE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD EXIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANOTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE
THE THUNDER AREA FROM WRN SC...ERN/SCNTRL GA AND NCNTRL FL. A COLD
FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LAST CHANGE IS TO EXTEND THE THUNDER AREA SWD
ACROSS PART OF CNTRL FL WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 02/19/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE
EWD TO OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SRN GA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EWD/SEWD THROUGH SRN GA AND FL.
...FAR SRN SC/SERN GA/NRN FL...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL BENEATH PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT
PRECEDING ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS POTENTIAL
ENHANCEMENT IN DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE OFFSET
BY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/ WITH WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
EXPECT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO VEER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TODAY
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND MIXES THE STRONG WLY FLOW
DOWNWARD. DESPITE THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY GIVE RISE TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS. GIVEN
THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED.
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