SWODY1
SPC AC 031258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS INTO
THE LWR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPR LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SHOULD
INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AND EARLY SAT AS SPEED MAXIMA NOW IN THE SRN
AND WRN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM REDEVELOP E/NE INTO THE CNTRL HI
PLNS. THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER N CNTRL KS BY 12Z SAT...S OF
CLOSED HIGH OVER AB/SK.
AT THE SFC...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTM OVER WRN PORTIONS
OF THE SRN PLNS SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CENTER
CONSOLIDATING ON THE KS-OK BORDER S OF WICHITA BY EARLY EVE. THE
LOW SHOULD TRACK NE TO NEAR TOPEKA BY 12Z SAT AS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACCELERATES SE AND OVERTAKES LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER OK AND
TX. FARTHER S AND E...SHALLOW/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
GENERALLY SE FROM THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY N/NE
ACROSS ERN OK...SRN AR...AND CNTRL/NRN LA TODAY...AND INTO ERN AR/MS
EARLY SAT.
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N/NE FROM CNTRL/E TX AND LA
INTO PARTS OF OK...AR...AND MS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
WIND PROFILES FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN
A RATHER BROAD AREA THAT WILL BE SUBJECT TO AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TNGT.
...SRN PLNS INTO ARKLATEX/LWR MS VLY...
WHILE A FAIRLY LARGE PART OF THE S CNTRL U.S. WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT WILL
NOT BE VERY WELL FOCUSED. THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO THE FACT THAT THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOUR
CORNERS UPR LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO KS...AWAY FROM THE LARGE SWATH OF
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND THE
LWR MS VLY.
THE REGION OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY IS ALONG THE MERGING COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH-DRY LINE ADVANCING GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN OK AND CNTRL/N TX.
GIVEN SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE...EVEN MODEST SFC HEATING
SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...50-60 KT
SWLY MID LVL FLOW ON SE FRINGE OF UPR LOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. AREA VWP DATA ATTM SHOW THE
LLJ AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH ALREADY STARTING TO VEER...AND THE LWR
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN VEERED TO A SSWLY DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY GIVEN THE NEWD MOTION/CONSOLIDATION OF ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.
THUS...EXPECT STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS/CLUSTERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DMGG WND AND HAIL
FROM EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
THE ABOVE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN SIZABLE...ELONGATED MCS OR
TWO THIS EVE OVER SE OK AND PARTS OF NRN...ERN...AND CNTRL TX. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AND DEVELOP SWD INTO RICHER
MOISTURE OVER THE TX GULF CSTL PLN LATER TNGT/EARLY SAT. LOW TO MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND THE DEEP WIND FIELD ONLY
MODERATELY STRONG. BUT SETUP MAY NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
RISK FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC SVR WEATHER /LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR AN
ISOLD TORNADO/ GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND LIKELY PRESENCE
OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
FARTHER S AND E...SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT
INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MAY YIELD A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD STORMS
THAT POSE AT LEAST AN INTERMITTENT RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES TODAY OVER E TX...THE MID/UPR TX GULF CSTL
PLN...AND LA. UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK
UNDERCUTTING THE FOUR CORNERS LOW /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE. WHILE MODEST DEEP SHEAR WILL HAMPER
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...ENHANCED LOW LVL SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT NEAR WARM FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
TORNADOES.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 02/03/2012
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