SWODY1
SPC AC 170055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN REMAINS OVER ERN
CONUS...RELATED TO CYCLONE NOW PIVOTING SEWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF CA.
THIS CYCLONE IS FCST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW CURVING PATH EWD ACROSS
SONORA OVERNIGHT. LOW-AMPLITUDE/SRN-STREAM PERTURBATIONS...POORLY
RESOLVED BY MODELS AND ONLY FAINTLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY...WILL MOVE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
AT SFC...23Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
NC...WHICH IS FCST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE HSE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SWD THEN WWD OVER SRN NC AND NERN GA TO COLD FRONTAL
INTERSECTION E OF ATL. COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH WEAK WAVE
LOW OVER PNS AREA...THEN ACROSS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL GULF.
FRONTOLYSIS APPEARS UNDERWAY OVER WRN GULF...WITH SFC BOUNDARY
REDEVELOPING NWD INVOF LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
NERN MEX. SHALLOW/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE THEN EXTENDS NWWD ACROSS
MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN CHIHUAHUA S OF BIG BEND.
PRECISE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN RUGGED
TERRAIN...OBSERVATIONAL DATA VOID...AND THICK CLOUD COVER ON VIS
IMAGERY TO HIDE LOW-LEVEL FEATURES. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN S OF RIO
GRANDE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING NWD INTRUSION INTO SW TX
AROUND 850-MB LEVEL.
...DEEP S TX...
MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS FROM BRO/CRP/DRT INDICATE CONVECTION NEARBY IN
MEX MAY BE SFC-BASED...BUT WILL LOSE EFFECTIVE SFC-BASED INFLOW NEAR
OR BEFORE CROSSING RIO GRANDE. GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF
FRONT...ISOLATED GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DIABATICALLY. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
NOT AS STEEP AS CHARACTERISTIC ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
PROFILES...MOIST/WARM ADVECTION AND RELATED THETAE INCREASE ABOVE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BOOST ELEVATED MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. STG
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF MID-UPPER
JET WILL SUPPORT 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MRGL HAIL RISK AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 02/17/2012
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