SWODY2
SPC AC 030628
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST INTO STRONGLY CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW. THIS WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER AMPLIFYING NRN
STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A MODEST OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL U.S. WHILE A BELT OF MORE ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW TAKES A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM NRN MEXICO/SRN TX
TO THE NRN GULF/LOWER MS VALLEY TO FL.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEING EJECTED EAST FROM THE
PLAINS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW/WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE
OZARKS TO SRN APPALACHIANS AS DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLES
GRADUALLY SWD/SEWD IN ITS WAKE. STRENGTH AND SRN PUSH TO THE FRONT
ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE LESS A FUNCTION OF THE
DECAYING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW AND MORE LIKELY
SUPPORTED/SUSTAINED BY MODERATE ANTICYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK
AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. AS SUCH...EXPECT LIFT AND FORCING ALONG
THE TRAILING BOUNDARY TO BE LIMITED/MEAGER GIVEN LACK OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA. FORECAST OF VERY WEAK TO NIL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE FRONT AND OVER THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR...FROM TX ACROSS LA...FURTHER SUPPORT THE CONCLUSION OF
LIMITED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THESE AREAS.
...SRN AND ERN TX ACROSS THE MS DELTA...
DESPITE THE LIMITATIONS ALREADY MENTIONED...A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60SF FROM S TX TO MS ON SATURDAY. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT...FROM NERN TX ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX...AIDED BY WAA/LIFT ON THE NOSE OF WEAK LLJ. MASS
TRANSPORT AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND EJECT EAST. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE
GREATER DESTABILIZATION INDICATED ACROSS S TX IN LATEST GUIDANCE.
GIVEN 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE VIGOR
LIKELY WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS/LINES COULD
EVOLVE AHEAD OF OR EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...FROM S TX ACROSS LA...AND
EVEN INTO MS/AL WITH TIME WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT WILL EXIST TO POSSIBLY SUSTAIN A FEW STORMS AMIDST WEAKER
INSTABILITY. WHILE SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A RISK OF STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY AREA FROM S TX NEWD TOWARD
THE TN VALLEY.
..CARBIN.. 02/03/2012
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