DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040638
SWODY2
SPC AC 040637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND ELONGATED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO AN UNUSUAL
TRANSFORMATION THIS WEEKEND. ONE PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD A REGION OF
STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. WHAT REMAINS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PERSIST AS A WEST-TO-EAST TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE MID MS
VALLEY. WEAK MID LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM
MO/IA TO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE SOMEWHAT STRONGER ZONAL/WLY
FLOW EXISTS OVER THE SRN TIER OF STATES FROM AZ/NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST.

GIVEN THE EVENTUAL DEMISE OF THE CNTRL/SRN U.S. SYSTEM AS IT IS
STRETCHED APART IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER
FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY STALL AND REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY
WEAKENED STATE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/NRN MEXICO EAST
ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NRN GULF COAST...AND THEN ENEWD TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

...SOUTHEAST...
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO COINCIDE AND PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER GA/SC ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR AS LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SEGMENT IS ENHANCED BY
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC...AND SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF MID/UPPER JET. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MODEST/FLOW
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

...S TX...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE SUPPLEMENTED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE
LOWER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ATOP
PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEVERE TSTMS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.

..CARBIN.. 02/04/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.