DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151724
SWODY2
SPC AC 151723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN GULF COAST...

DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY 17/00Z. SRN INFLUENCE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL CLIP VA AND PERHAPS EVEN NC BUT OTHERWISE WEAK BROAD
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THE OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE...WEAK SFC RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RETREAT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. EVEN
SO POOR SFC TRAJECTORIES WILL PREVENT MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM RETURNING INLAND AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
WEAK.

FARTHER SW...MODIFIED GOM AIRMASS WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN
MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE. SFC DEW POINTS COULD RISE TO NEAR 65 ALONG THE
COAST WHICH WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS TO BE
BUOYANT ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL ROBUST UPDRAFTS. LATEST THINKING IS
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS MS/LA AT 12Z. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
30-35KT IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED ALONG WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE TOWARD THE
FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MOST OF GA/SC TO WARRANT A RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUS
WILL LOWER PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIGGING UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./NRN MEXICO. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NOTED FROM PORTIONS OF AZ...SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO
DEEP SOUTH TX WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MORE RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY ON THE U.S. SIDE OF THE BORDER
WILL REMAIN INADEQUATE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS.

..DARROW.. 02/15/2012

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