SWODY2
SPC AC 191709
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. DIRECTLY
BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THE MODELS DEEPEN A SFC LOW IN NRN KS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS INITIATING FROM THE LOW SWD INTO ECNTRL
OK. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXIST JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS A 90
TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES QUICKLY EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW SWD. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...500 MB TEMPS FROM NRN KS INTO ECNTRL OK SHOULD RANGE
FROM -27 TO -30 C. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT 00Z ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F
WITH ONLY A NARROW SLIVER OF CAPE FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB
SUGGESTING THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 02/19/2012
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