SWODY2
SPC AC 201730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SPLIT EAST OF A BUILDING
UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH ONE BRANCH PEELING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. WITHIN THIS STREAM...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
STILL EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF A
SIGNIFICANT DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTIVE THAT IT WILL BECOME DETACHED FROM THE STRONGER POLAR JET
NOSING AROUND THE PACIFIC HIGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THIS
APPEARS MOSTLY DUE TO UNCERTAIN INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
GULF STATES.
MEANWHILE...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT SPLIT BRANCHES OF THE POLAR
WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE DURING THIS PERIOD EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF BROADER SCALE UPPER
TROUGHING. THIS PROBABLY WILL PRECLUDE ANY AMPLIFICATION OF MID/
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...IN ADVANCE OF THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU IMPULSE.
COINCIDING WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...THE CENTER OF A BROAD
SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HOWEVER...
SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
APPEARS UNLIKELY...AS INFLOW FROM A SLOWLY MODIFYING WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CUT OFF. WHILE MOISTENING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION...FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IF ANY...
REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE
ACROSS THE NATION.
..KERR.. 02/20/2012
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