SWODY2
SPC AC 101726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LATEST MODEL DATA MAINTAINS THE INITIAL DAY 2 FORECAST
INDICATING A BREAKDOWN THE SRN EXTENT OF THE NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AS
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST.
ONE SUCH MORE PROMINENT TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 38N/137W PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE CA COAST
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SPLIT FLOW BELTS WILL CONVERGE INTO AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE ERN STATES TO OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY. AN ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SWD/SEWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SRN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
...GREAT BASIN...
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM
ATTENDANT TO THE AMPLIFYING PACIFIC TROUGH AND STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING FLOW WITHIN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION. THESE
FACTORS AND MUCAPE OF LESS THAN 100 J/KG SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A 10 PERCENT TSTM PROBABILITY FROM ERN NV INTO UT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE STRENGTH OF
UPPER FORCING/COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A LOW TSTM
POTENTIAL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
..PETERS.. 02/10/2012
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