SWODY2
SPC AC 071716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2012
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH FL...
A FOCUSED ZONE OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INDUCE A SFC WAVE THAT SHOULD
DEEPEN JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN THE LARGE
SCALE IT APPEARS A STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS IT FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH FL.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PRIOR TO NWLY FLOW
DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING...MOISTURE WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE PWAT VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ALONG
WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH
THE 70S TO NEAR 80F IT WOULD SEEM THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BREACHED AND A FEW UPDRAFTS COULD DEEPEN SUCH THAT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED. EVEN SO ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND
WITH CONVERGENCE SPREADING OFFSHORE ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
...SOUTH TX...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY PROVE INADEQUATE FOR MORE
THAN SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TX DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD. ANY APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH-WEST OF THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 02/07/2012
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