SWOD48
SPC AC 100919
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...LARGE
SPREAD...CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AN UPPER AIR
PATTERN EXHIBITING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF
STRONGER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S...REDUCES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. PAST
RUNS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS...INCLUDING BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
SUPPORTIVE OF AN INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS AT LEAST WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
APPARENT LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING...COUPLED WITH THE
EXTENDED TIME FRAME.../POTENTIAL TOO LOW/ CATEGORIZATION STILL SEEMS
MORE APPROPRIATE THAN /PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW/ FOR THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD.
..KERR.. 02/10/2012
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