SWOD48
SPC AC 180904
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF...GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
AND EVOLVE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THAT PERSISTS THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 6. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE UNFAVORABLE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG THE
GULF COASTAL AREA AND FL. AT LEAST A MODEST SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTS AND NRN FL LATE DAY 5 AND
AGAIN DAY 7 AS WSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN BASE OF BROADER TROUGH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY ONSHORE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED WHICH LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A GREATER
COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 02/18/2012
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