MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0097

ACUS11 KWNS 030945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030945
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-031345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NERN CO...NWRN
KS...SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 030945Z - 031345Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1-3 INCH AN HOUR WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE IN CO. HEAVIER SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING. NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY.

ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE MULTI CLOUD LAYER PRECIPITATION HAS
LED TO AN AMALGAMATION OF SNOWFLAKES. WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING
RATHER STATIONARY...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS AREA IN CONCERT WITH
PERSISTENT NELY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SHOW
A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT IN THE LOW...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS MORNING. 0915Z RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND DEVELOPING FROM NEAR PUB NEWD TO
LBF...WHERE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW AS OF 0930Z ACROSS SWRN
NEB AND NWRN KS...WEB BULB EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
COOLING...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY SUNRISE...LEADING TO
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS HIGH EVEN WITH THE EVENT ONGOING...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. QPF TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
OVERDONE COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONAL DATA. NONETHELESS...SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE INTENSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

..HURLBUT.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39600156 39050307 38540428 38400451 38780504 39630499
39980410 40840247 41060181 40850129 40330109 39600156

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