SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031235
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-031430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...CENTRAL-SWRN LA...EXTREME SWRN MS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031235Z - 031430Z
MRGL/SPORADIC SVR THREAT IS EVIDENT OVER DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONAL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. 13Z
DAY-1 OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY WILL REFLECT SVR PROBABILITIES EXTENDED
SEWD INTO AREA...BOTH FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY AND FOR LATE-PERIOD
POTENTIAL. RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MOST INTENSE CORES...GIVEN EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESSING ON STORM
SCALE AND HIGH PW IN INFLOW ENVIRONMENT.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE...ITS BAROCLINICITY REINFORCED
BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO ITS N...FROM NEAR MSY-BTR-ACP-JAS.
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT NWD. FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES DIFFUSE
FARTHER NW OVER TX WHERE BROAD WAA PLUME AND OTHER SYNOPTIC-SCALE
PROCESSES OF ROCKIES CYCLONE ARE MORE DOMINANT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG AND N OF SE TX/LA FRONTAL SEGMENT ARE FCST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
GENERALLY NEWD TO ENEWD IN REGIME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT
INITIALLY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 12Z LCH RAOB AND MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG NEAR I-10
TO LESS THAN 250 J/KG ALONG AND JUST N OF FRONT..BUT WITH SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. INSOLATION SHOULD BOOST THESE VALUES BY
25-50% BY LATE MORNING...HELPING TO REMOVE REMAINING CINH.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHEAR...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR TRANSIENT
CIRCULATIONS EITHER WITH SMALLER/DISCRETE CELLS OR BOWING CLUSTERS.
OBSERVED RAOB/VWP DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 100-200 J/KG OF
0-1 KM AGL SRH...BUT ONLY 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. MAIN
CONTRIBUTOR TO DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE STORM-SCALE
PRECIP LOADING.
..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30689483 31549375 31739309 31889181 31399127 30789165
30199291 30419387 30329507 30689483
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